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Good news, bad news

OFFICIAL STEELAHS.COM 2008 PREDICTIONS 

By Mike Batista
Steelahs.com forecaster
September 2, 2008
 

I feel a little bit better about the Steelers now than I did at the beginning of training camp.

Take a look around the AFC. Several playoff-caliber teams are dealing with potential snags.

Questions surround the health of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning (and his offensive line) and Derek Anderson. Brady, who didn’t play in the preseason because of a foot injury, says he’s ready to go in the opener against Kansas City. It looks like Manning is recovered from surgery to have an infected bursa sac removed from his left knee. So we’ll be treated to his puppet-on-speed, pre-snap routine Sunday night in the season opener against the Bears, but Manning will have a couple of different people protecting him. Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday is expected to miss six weeks with a partially torn knee ligament, and left guard Ryan Lilja is on the physically-unable-to-perform list. Anderson, the Browns quarterback who suffered a concussion Aug. 18 against the Giants, returned to practice Monday.

Anderson isn’t the only Brown who’s banged up. Wide receiver Braylon Edwards also returned to practice Monday after cutting his foot Aug. 9. Running back Jamal Lewis, safety Sean Jones and linebacker Willie McGinest also have dealt with injuries during the preseason, although they’re all likely to play in the opener. Safety Brodney Pool, who also had a concussion, and return specialist Joshua Cribbs are likely to sit out the opener against Dallas. The Browns are targeting the Week 2 matchup against the Steelers for Cribbs’ return. Pretty smart considering the Steelers’ suspect special teams.

The Chargers? Outside linebacker Shawne Merriman is playing with two torn knee ligaments despite four doctors advising him to have surgery.

Then there’s the Jaguars.

On a somber note, offensive lineman Richard Collier suffered life-threatening injuries after being shot early Tuesday morning. As of Tuesday afternoon, he was in critical but stable condition after surgery. The incident caps a tumultuous offseason for the Jaguars. Wide receiver Matt Jones was arrested for possession of a controlled substance in July. Another receiver, Dennis Northcutt, is being sued by the woman carrying his baby. She claims he conspired to have her beaten up. Then early Saturday morning, running back Fred Taylor was cited for disorderly conduct.

The Jaguars have had 10 arrests in the past two years, but it’s not just legal issues they’re dealing with. Rookie defensive end Derrick Harvey was the last first-round draft pick to sign. He missed 33 days of training camp, which probably will limit his impact this season. Also missing several weeks is veteran receiver Jerry Porter, who had surgery on a torn hamstring and returned to practice Monday. Porter was acquired to help stretch the Jaguars’ offense. But he might be past his prime.

Despite all this adversity, it’s not like the Steelers can close their eyes and have the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Jaguars and Browns all go away. They’re all on their schedule this season.

Brady and Patriots coach Bill Belichick are pretty much just having fun with the media. Brady says he’s ready to go Sunday. Belichick won’t confirm it. The Patriots disperse information like China. It’s only a matter of time before Internet access is limited to reporters at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Brady could move around with a cane and they’d still get into the playoffs.

Even if Merriman’s knee doesn’t hold up, the Chargers have enough talent to overcome it.

Despite all their problems, I still think the Jaguars are a little bit better than the Steelers, and I think this is the year they finally overtake the Colts and win the AFC South. David Garrard might not be an elite NFL quarterback, but he knows how to win. And this Collier shooting could bring the team together.

As far as the Steelers-Browns rivalry goes, I think the Steelers still will have the upper hand. The Browns are an organization on the way up, but the rise will take a year off. Their schedule is too tough, and the Steelers have the firepower to exploit their secondary.

It’s time for Santonio Holmes to have a breakout year. He’s the Steelers’ most dangerous receiver and will be Ben Roethlisberger’s No. 1 target this season. And I agree with the move to have him return some of the punts. He can be a real weapon there.

It looks like Willie Parker will have to shoulder the bulk of the running load for the time being. Let’s hope Rashard Mendenhall can learn to hang onto the football and be heard from by the end of the season.

The offensive line might not be much better than it was last season. But I think the minimal improvement there, combined with the increased power on offense, will allow the Steelers to put a lot of points on the board.

The defense, on the other hand, has to get better. That might sound strange considering they had the No. 1 defense in the league last season, but it might have been the worst top-ranked defense in the history of the NFL. When it mattered most, the defense was disappointing.

Had Troy Polamalu been completely healthy, the Steelers might not have given up so many late leads last season. I think he can return to his game-changing form of 2004 and 2005, which will help the entire defense. Polamalu isn’t the only safety who will have an impact. Ryan Clark is healthy again. I think his absence was an underrated factor in the decline of the defense last season.

Moving up to the linebackers, Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley will be household names far beyond the Western Pennsylvania hills by the end of the season. I’m still a little worried about the aging defensive line. Having Aaron Smith back will work wonders, but they need to figure out a way to stop those cutback runs. I think we can get a head start on the 2009 NFL draft by saying the Steelers’ top area of need is the defensive line.

I see the Steelers going 11-5 this season and winning the AFC North. Look for a head-to-head split between the Steelers and Browns, with both teams winning on the road. The other losses will come at Jacksonville Oct. 5, home to Indianapolis Nov. 9 and San Diego Nov. 16 and at New England Nov. 30.

The Steelers will beat the Colts in the wild-card and get another shot at the Patriots in Foxboro. Unfortunately, Brady, Randy Moss and company will have just a little too much for the Steelers’ defense. We have four months to prepare for a playoff loss at Gillette Stadium that will be so heartbreaking that we’ll never shave again.

The consolation prize for Steelers fans will be the Chargers’ win in New England the following week. Who will the Chargers face in the Super Bowl? Keep reading.

PREDICTIONS

AFC playoff seeds: 1. Patriots (14-2); 2. Chargers (12-4); 3. Jaguars (11-5);  4. Steelers (11-5); 5. Colts (10-6); 6. Bills (10-6)

Wild-card playoffs: Jaguars 17, Bills 10; Steelers 41, Colts 28

Divisional playoffs: Chargers 23, Jaguars 20; Patriots 41, Steelers 38

Championship game: Chargers 16, Patriots 14

NFC playoff seeds: 1. Cowboys (13-3); 2. Saints (12-4); 3. Vikings (10-6); 4. Seahawks (9-7); 5. Giants (10-6); 6. Panthers (10-6)

Wild-card playoffs: Giants 34, Seahawks 7; Panthers 20, Vikings 17

Divisional playoffs: Cowboys 36, Panthers 12; Saints 37, Giants 30

Championship game: Saints 27, Cowboys 24

Super Bowl XLIII: Chargers 31, Saints 21

That’s right. The Bills will make the playoffs. How boring would it be if the same six AFC teams made the playoffs again? The Saints are my surprise team to reach the Super Bowl. Along the way, Jeremy Shockey will get his redemption against the Giants. In Tampa, Drew Brees will get a chance to prove that the Chargers kept the wrong quarterback. But it won’t happen. The Chargers gave the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC championship game last season with LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers all hurting. We know Merriman’s playing hurt, but if the rest of the team stays healthy, the Chargers will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.

PRESEASON
POWER RANKINGS

Every week I'll be ranking the top 12 teams and bottom four teams in the NFL.

THE TERRIFIC 12:

1. Chargers: Team with the most talent in the NFL has the league’s second-easiest schedule. Guess who has the easiest.

2. Patriots: That’s right, New England has the easiest schedule, and addressed its biggest weakness by signing two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Deltha O’Neal.

3. Saints: Drew Brees has 8,841 passing yards over the past two seasons, 404 more than Peyton Manning and 506 more than Tom Brady.

4. Cowboys: New stadium, which opens next season, will be the largest domed structure in the world. The Statue of Liberty and its base could fit into it with the roof closed.

5. Jaguars: Scored team-record 411 points last season.

6. Steelers: Have won five consecutive season openers, the longest streak in the NFL.

7. Colts: In 2007 became first team in NFL history to win at least 12 games in five straight seasons.

8. Giants: Michael Strahan, who retired, and Osi Umenyiora, who is out for the season, combined for 22 sacks last season.

9. Panthers: Jake Delhomme says he’s throwing pain-free for the first time since 2004.

10. Vikings: OK, I was going to say that Brad Childress looks like a math or science teacher. But Blog ‘N’ Gold published that line before I did. So I’ll just say that of all the current NFL coaches, Childress looks the least like an NFL coach.

11. Bills: Special teams will win a couple of games for them this season.

12. Titans: Will just miss the playoffs.

THE FUTILE FOUR:

29. Rams: There will be no remake of The Greatest Show on Turf, even if new offensive coordinator Al Saunders coached the wide receivers in 1999, the year they won the Super Bowl.

30. Dolphins: Kendall Langford. Remember that name.

31. Falcons: Held a scrimmage at an Atlanta-area high school. The event included a bunch of dogs doing tricks. Good PR move.

32. Chiefs: Defensive end Jared Allen, who they traded to the Vikings, was their first Pro Bowler on defense in seven years. Definitely in rebuilding mode. 

Here we go

By Mike Batista
Steelahs.com storekeeper
September 5, 2008

Before everyone boycotts Steelahs.com for my prediction that the Steelers will lose to the Patriots in the playoffs (hey, I hope I’m wrong), please read what critics are calling my feel-good story of the year.

We’ve been waiting eight months for the Steelers to kick off against the Texans Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field. Eight months ago today, the Steelers came back from 18 points down and took the lead against the Jaguars in their AFC wild-card game, only to give the lead back and see their season end.

After the game, Ben Roethlisberger waited for Jaguars quarterback David Garrard to finish his post-game interview on the field, then congratulated him when he was done. That classy move is the sort of thing a captain does. The gesture provided us with a little nugget of Steelers pride as we embarked on a long offseason.

The schadenfreude of the Patriots’ Super Bowl loss helped make eight months without Steelers football a little shorter, but after that we had to take what we could get. There was Steelers fan Seth Meyers waving a Terrible Towel on “Saturday Night Live” in tribute to the late Myron Cope. Then there was the first day of the draft, when the Steelers got Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed. It might have been the best day to be a Steelers fan since Super Bowl XL. Then there was training camp, which is all well and good, but we’re talking about PRACTICE!

There’s no substitute for live Steelers games.   

As a Steelers fan from outside Western Pennsylvania, watching the Steelers means going to a sports bar with DirecTV. And there’s something special about that first Sunday of NFL football. It might still be hot as hell outside, but when I cross the threshold of the bar’s front door, I leave summer behind and step into a fall and winter of living and dying with every Steelers snap.

For me, the first peek of autumn colors is seeing the various caps and jerseys of fans supporting their NFL team. On opening day I usually can count fans of at least a dozen teams. On Sunday afternoons in the fall, a restaurant host doesn’t ask “Booth or table?” Usually the host doesn’t have to ask anything. I just say “Steelers,” and the host will direct me to the best available spot where I can see a television with the Steelers game on it. Sometimes there’s someone directing traffic with remote control in hand, asking fans what game they want to see and pointing them in the right direction. Often these sports bars with more TVs than you can count will have a sign on each one saying which game it will show.

Of course, when the Steelers are on national TV and can be seen at home, it’s always nice to stay in and save the money (by the way, keep an eye out for my Kornheiser Watch when the Steelers play on Monday nights.) But for the most part, Sundays in the fall mean beer, wings, burgers, pizza and meeting new Steelers fans.

My most memorable meal watching a Steelers game was a Pittsburgh Burger I had at the late Finn McCool’s in White Plains, NY. It was the closest thing I’ve ever had to a Roethlis-burger. That was the last regular-season game in 2005, when the Steelers beat the Lions at home to earn a spot in the playoffs. The rest is history.

Kickoff is less than 48 hours away, and I still don’t know where I’m going to watch the game. I watched the games at Sports Page and Dunne’s last season. And while I won’t rule out those places this season, for personal reasons I’m not entirely comfortable going to White Plains. The closest place for me is Barney McNabb’s in Yonkers. That’s where I watched the Steelers’ last loss of their 2005 championship season, a defeat at home to the Bengals. It’s a small place with not enough TVs to show every game and a menu of just appetizers. But I found the locals to be very friendly.

I’m tempted to find a bar in New York City. SteelersNYC has a list of Steelers-friendly bars in the city. If anyone has any suggestions for where to watch the Steelers in Westchester or New York City on Sunday, shoot me an e-mail.

Until then: “Here we go Steelers! Here we go!”

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