Before I explain the above monstrosity, let me tackle the question on everyone's mind:
Will Troy Polamalu play Sunday at Miami?
I don't know.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said in today's press
conference that Polamalu's been running in a straight line this week. But can he cut? Tomlin said "the door is open"
for Polamalu to play Sunday. It sounds like it will be Polamalu's decision.
It's pretty apparent that Polamalu
won't play through the kind of pain Hines Ward has been playing through. However, I'd say the Steelers' playoff chances aren't
good enough for Polamalu to risk his long-term health to play in one game.
Which brings me to my neat little flowchart.
For those of you who didn't take Advanced Calculometry, hopefully this chart will help you figure out what has to
happen Sunday for the Steelers to make the playoffs.
Keep in mind that this chart ASSUMES THE STEELERS WIN. If
the Steelers don't win in Miami Sunday, then I basically wasted a couple of hours drawing up this diagram.
The chart traces the chronological order of games Sunday. The Patriots play at Houston at 1 p.m. The Steelers can't clinch
a playoff spot after the 1 p.m. games. The earliest they can clinch is after the 4:15 p.m. games.
As you can see
from the chart, things get really hairy for the Steelers if the Patriots can't beat or tie the Texans in Houston. Even with
all their starters, the Patriots have struggled on the road this season, and I'm hearing Tom Brady might not play at all.
At 4:15 p.m., the Ravens are at Oakland (not a slam dunk for the Ravens) and the Broncos host the Chiefs (a slam dunk
for the Broncos unless they've completely collapsed).
At 8:20 p.m., the Bengals are at the Jets. With the Bengals
and Patriots playing I-Don't-Want-It-You-Can-Have-It with the No. 3 seed, who knows if the Bengals will go balls out.
It's a colorful flowchart, isn't it? The purpose of the colors is as follows:
Red=1 p.m. game Purple=4:15
p.m. games Green=8:20 p.m. game
Last, and probably least, here are my Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, with record
and previous ranking in parentheses:
The AFC playoffs are like a treehouse with a sign that reads: Steelers
Keep Out.
The Patriots and Bengals don't want to hang out
with the Steelers, because their parents told them they're nothing
but trouble.
The Steelers need to beat the Dolphins Sunday
in Miami, then get help from the Patriots or Bengals, and possibly
both, to make the playoffs. I don't think the Patriots and Bengals
want to help the Steelers.
Since everyone's talking about the Colts. I guess I should too for a second.
Sure, the Colts lack balls by ditching
their pursuit of perfection, resting their starters and losing to
the Jets. That kept the Jets alive and hurt the Steelers' chances
of making the playoffs. But if the Steelers are cleaning out their
lockers a week from today, they can't blame Jim Caldwell. How about
not losing five in a row?
The 14-1 Colts have bigger concerns
than the barely-above-.500 Steelers. The Steelers might be a little
more on the minds of the Patriots and Bengals. I think they'd rather
see the Jets or Texans in the playoffs than the Steelers. Those two
rings on Ben Roethlisberger's fingers are a lot scarier than Rex Ryan's big mouth.
The
Patriots can clinch the No. 3 seed in the AFC with a win at Houston
Sunday. The Bengals can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win at the Jets
Sunday night and a Patriots loss.
But do either of these
teams want the No. 3 seed? Not only would that likely entail a date
with the Steelers in the wild-card round of the playoffs, but a potential
trip to San Diego in the divisional round.
The Chargers look like a tougher out than the Colts right now. They're 12-3 and have won 10 straight. When the Colts host their first
playoff game the weekend of Jan. 16-17, they'll have gone a full month
without really trying to win. Can you say rusty? I knew you could.
If you're still reading my column at this point, let me show
my gratitude by clearly spelling out what needs to happen for the
Steelers to make the playoffs. Then I will continue rambling.
The Steelers must beat the Dolphins Sunday in Miami AND one of the following three scenarios must unfold.
1) The Patriots must beat or tie the Texans in Houston AND The Bengals
must beat or tie the Jets at the Meadowlands.
2) The Patriots
must beat or tie the Texans in Houston AND The Raiders must beat or
tie the Ravens in Oakland.
3) The Bengals must beat or
tie the Jets at the Meadowlands AND the Raiders must beat or tie the
Ravens in Oakland AND the Chiefs must beat or tie the Broncos in Denver.
The first scenario seems like the easiest for the Steelers,
even though the Patriots and Bengals could both lay down to get that
coveted No. 4 seed.
Just to prove that I'm not a lonely voice in the wilderness, Butch Stearns of WEEI in Boston last night talked about the Patriots laying
down in Week 17 to avoid playing the Steelers in 2005.
They
settled for the No. 4 seed and crushed Jacksonville in the first round
while the Steelers beat the Bengals and went on to win the Super Bowl.
If the starters for both the Patriots and Bengals are getting
manicures and pedicures on the sidelines Sunday, the Steelers better hope at least one of those teams has some damn good backups.
And let's not forget one thing. The Dolphins
still have a lottery-like chance of making the playoffs. So they'll
have something to play for Sunday.
I don't think Joey Porter
wants to see the Steelers in the playoffs either.
I guess starting Deshea Townsend
at cornerback was the answer for the Steelers after all.
In Sunday's win over the Ravens at Heinz Field, Townsend unveiled a new technique for covering receivers: Get beat so bad they can't believe how open they are. Then they're so shocked they
drop the ball.
The strategy worked to perfection on the
first play of the fourth quarter. With the score tied 20-20, the Duquesne
Incline railway car could have fit through the space between Townsend
and Ravens' receiver Derrick Mason in the end zone. But Mason couldn't hang onto Joe Flacco's pass from the Steelers' 21.
For once, a Steelers opponent literally had the victory in their hands but couldn't hold on.
Dropped touchdown
passes by Limas Sweed and Santonio Holmes, and a dropped interception
by Joe Burnett, are the difference between 8-7 and 11-4 for the Steelers
this season.
The Steelers got one of those back on Sunday.
Had Mason supplied the Ravens with six points by holding onto the
ball, Jeff Reed's three points on his 38-yard field goal with 5:30
left in the game would not have been enough for the Steelers.
Simple mathematics.
What's not so simple is the mathematics needed to figure out how the
Steelers get into the playoffs.
As of press time, I'm not able to completely define the Steelers' playoff scenario.
But I can say that the Jets' win over the Colts was not a good thing for the Steelers. The Steelers finish the regular season
Sunday at Miami, and I don't think a Steelers win alone will get them into the playoffs. It looks like next week they'll not
only be going to the Patriots again with hat in hand (they need them to win at Houston) but also the Bengals (at the
Jets).
The Eagles' win over the Broncos helps, though.
Having won two straight after losing five in a row, the Steelers are in the same position as a husband who walks out on his wife, then after five weeks comes home and begs her to take him back. Really, it's over between
me and my receptionist. And the housekeeper. And the babysitter.
The wife's answer? We'll see.
Indeed, we'll see. Even if the Steelers win Sunday, their playoff fate is not their decision.
Give it away, give it away, give it away now
The Ravens (8-7) did everything they could to give the Steelers this game in the first half.
The Steelers finally held onto an interception, but couldn't hold onto a pass from their own quarterback.
James
Farrior grabbed a Joe Flacco pass tipped by LaMarr Woodley (that would
be a "splash" play, right Mike Tomlin?) and returned it
to the Ravens' 8. Mendenhall dropped a pass that would have at least
put him close to the goal line. The Steelers eventually settled for
three points to open the scoring.
The Steelers settled
for three, and a 6-3 lead, again after Stefan Logan returned a kickoff
49 yards to the Ravens' 47. This drive was hampered by one of the
Ravens' four sacks.
Ben Roethlisberger's been sacked 47
times this season. If he breaks Cliff Stoudt's team record of 51 next
week in Miami, will they stop the game for a ceremony in which Stoudt
drives onto the field with a truck full of Tylenol?
The Steelers' first touchdown was set up by a shanked Sam Koch punt, which gave the Steelers possession at the Ravens' 43. Mendenhall
finished the job with a 4-yard touchdown run and a 13-3 Steelers lead
early in the second quarter.
It was Mendenhall's only moment
of usefulness in the game. He ran the ball 17 times for 36 yards and
caught one ball for four yards. Meanwhile, Ravens' running back Ray
Rice hung 141 rushing yards on the Steelers' defense, the first back
to gain 100 yards on the Steelers in 32 games.
After the Steelers lost to the Ravens last month, I noted that the Ravens chose Rice two picks after the Steelers chose Limas Sweed in the second round of the 2008 draft. Hell, the Steelers missed
the boat twice on Rice. At the moment, it looks like Rice would have
been a better pick than Mendenhall in the first round.
Boy,
for a column on a Steelers' win keeping them alive in the playoff
race, during the holiday season no less, this is getting awfully nasty.
I have to stop thinking about the offensive line and Mendenhall and
think about something nice.
How about Mike Wallace?
Well received
As I said last week, Wallace had an impact when the Steelers won in Denver. Then he was all but invisible for five games, and the Steelers lost them all.
Wallace might not
be in every highlight reel in America like he was last week, but he
again made a difference Sunday, catching three passes for 83 yards.
More than half of those yards came on third-and-12 from the
Steelers' 4 with just over a minute left in the first half. It looked
like the Steelers' attempt to get points before the half was dead
in the water when Roethlisberger recognized the Ravens were offsides
and he had a free play. He fired a 45-yard completion to Wallace.
Heath Miller and Hines Ward followed with receptions to set
up Santonio Holmes' 24-yard touchdown catch, which gave the Steelers' a 20-10 halftime lead.
Considering how banged up the unit was, it wasn't a bad day for the
Steelers' receivers. Santonio Holmes caught five passes for 86 yards.
Hines Ward caught four for 37 on a bad hamstring. Even undrafted rookie
Tyler Grisham caught a crucial 14-yard pass on third down on the Steelers'
game-winning drive (yes, a drop later in the drive forced the Steelers
to settle for the field goal).
Joey Galloway? He was inactive.
I'll melt with you
One thing we learned from this game is that it's much better
for the Steelers' defense to melt down in the third quarter than the
fourth quarter.
The Steelers' 10-point lead was gone less than nine minutes into the
third quarter on Todd Heap's seven-yard touchdown catch, his second
TD of the game, and Billy Cundiff's 35-yard field goal.
The
Steelers' defense finally buckled down once it blew the lead.
Woodley
and rookie defensive tackle Ziggy Hood plopped their 565 combined
pounds into the pool and made a few more splash plays in the fourth
quarter. Hood recorded his first NFL sack to force the Ravens to punt
from their own 29 and set up the Steelers' deciding drive.
After Reed's field goal, the Ravens moved the ball to the fringes
of field-goal range, the Steelers' 35, with 2:39 left. Then Woodley
sacked Flacco on two consecutive plays. The second forced a fumble, which Hood picked up.
The Steelers took over on their 42 with 2:27 remaining, but just like
they did in the AFC championship game last season, the Ravens did
their best Glenn Close-Isn't-Really-Dead-Yet from "Fatal Attraction."
Tom Zbikowski intercepted Roethlisberger and returned it 38
yards to the Steelers' 42 with still 101 seconds to play. The pick
was negated, however, by an illegal contact penalty on Frank Walker.
As much as Ravens' coach John Harbaugh pissed and moaned about the call, it looked like Walker had Wallace locked in a passionate embrace. It was nothing short of man love.
Which Steelers Super Bowl hangover is more severe? 2006 or 2009?
That question will be answered Sunday at
Heinz Field, because after 14 games, the Steelers are at the exact
point they were in 2006.
The Steelers are 7-7.
Just like 2006.
The Steelers host the Ravens in Week 16.
Just like 2006.
Despite
a disappointing season and some obvious flaws unbecoming of a playoff
team, Steelers fans are giddy about their slim chances of making the
postseason.
Just like 2006.
If you don't recall how it turned out in 2006, let me refresh your
memory. The Steelers got pounded 31-7 by the Ravens. No playoffs.
The Steelers' slim playoff chances gained about a half pound
on fruitcake Christmas night when the Chargers beat the Titans 42-17, reducing to five the number of 7-7 teams in the AFC.
To keep their playoff heart beating, the Steelers are going to have to win another game without Troy Polamalu, who didn't practice this week but said he was "encouraged" Tuesday by an MRI on his knee. I hope he wasn't encouraged the same way I'm encouraged
when I get one number in PowerBall.
There is some good
news, however, in the Steelers' secondary, where they're going from
Gay to Big Play, as in Trevor "Big Play" Deshea Townsend.
The 34-year-old, who shares with Hines Ward the distinction as longest-tenured
Steeler, will start at cornerback in place of William Gay. The cagey
veteran is the last Steelers cornerback to get an interception. He
did it against the Ravens in the AFC title game.
Townsend is just a whipper-snapper compared to 38-year-old Joey Galloway, who joined the Steelers to bolster their ailing receiving corps. Ward is questionable with a hamstring injury and Mike
Wallace is probable with a knee laceration.
But the Steelers
nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this season with Dennis
Dixon at quarterback. If they can finish the job Sunday, they'll have
something to play for next week in Miami (perhaps with Polamalu) and
will officially be a cut above the last Steelers team that tried to
defend a championship.
If they lose, it will be 2006 all
over again, only the economy won't be as good.
At a glance:
Who: Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (7-7) When: Sunday, 1 p.m. Where:
Heinz Field TV: CBS (KDKA, Ch. 2 in Pittsburgh area. DirecTV Ch. 709. To find out if the game will be shown in your area, go to the506.com and they'll take care of you.) Announcers: Dick Enberg and Dan Fouts All-time:
Steelers lead 16-11 in regular season (Steelers lead 2-0 in playoffs) The skinny: The Steelers haven't beaten the Ravens at home in a day game since 2004. ... To keep their playoff hopes alive, the Steelers
need to win this game. Wins from the Eagles, Dolphins, Colts and Patriots
(as I throw up in my mouth) also would help their chances. ... Steelers
OLB James Harrison is questionable with an arm injury. ... Ravens
S Ed Reed is doubtful with a knee injury.
I was hoping the results of Troy Polamalu's MRI would come out before I posted this. But I haven't heard anything,
so I'll post my rankings now and have something about Polamalu later.
Polamalu, who has missed nine games this season with two different knee injuries, had an MRI today. Pending the results,
there's an outside chance he'll be available for Sunday's game against the Ravens at Heinz Field.
Having Polamalu back will increase the Steelers' chances of winning their final
two games, which they need to do, and get a lot of help, to make the playoffs.
Whether or not the Steelers have Polamalu, figuring out the playoff picture still requires filling a blackboard with
numbers, letters, decimals and fractions, I'll try to make things simple by outlining a scenario in which the Steelers could
hear next week the words every team wants to hear: "control their own destiny."
Obviously, the Steelers have to beat the Ravens Sunday.
Here's what else has to happen:
In Philadelphia,
the Eagles have to beat the Broncos. A definite possibility.
Philadelphia is trying to clinch the NFC East, and the Broncos lost
at home to the Raiders.
In Indianapolis, the Colts
have to beat the Jets. I think Indianapolis has to go at
least one more week before resting starters. They'll have a first-round
bye in the playoffs. You don't want to go four weeks without meaningful
football. The Colts learned that lesson in 2005.
In
Tennessee, the Chargers have to beat the Titans. This might be a
tough one, but it certainly could happen. San Diego still has to clinch
a first-round bye.
In Miami, the Dolphins have
to beat the Texans. I could see that. This would knock out
the Texans, and the Steelers could knock out the Dolphins by beating
them Jan. 3.
In New England, the Patriots have
to beat the Jaguars. Yes, we have to whore ourselves out
and hope the Patriots win this one.
If all this unfolds,
all the Steelers have to do Jan. 3 is win in Miami (they'd have to
do a better job stopping the wildcat than they did in Cleveland) and
they're in the playoffs.
Even if all this doesn't go the
Steelers' way, as long as they beat the Ravens, their playoff hopes
will remain alive entering Week 17.
Here's the playoff
picture, with remaining games in parentheses:
Division
leaders 1. Indianapolis 14-0 (Jets, at Bills) 2. San Diego 11-3 (at Tennessee, Washington) 3. Cincinnati
9-5 (Kansas City, at Jets) 4. New England 9-5 (Jacksonville, at Houston)
In the hunt Miami 7-7
(Houston, Pittsburgh) Jets 7-7 (at Indianapolis, Cincinnati) Jacksonville 7-7 (at New England, at Cleveland) Pittsburgh 7-7 (Baltimore, at Miami) Tennessee 7-7 (San Diego, at Seattle) Houston 7-7 (at Miami, New England)
A couple of other points:
I was remiss in saying Sunday's game was the highest scoring in the history of Heinz Field. I should have said it
was the highest scoring NFL game. Just two weeks ago, Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh 45-44 at Heinz in a college game.
I find it amazing that after the Steelers won in Denver, the talking heads all
handed the Lamar Hunt Trophy to them. Then the Steelers lose five straight. Now, the Steelers win their first game in a month
and a half, and everyone's puckering up to kiss the Steelers' asses again. Oooh, the Steelers are dangerous. No one wants
to face them in the playoffs. Everyone should just see how the games turn out and shut the fuck up! Oh, and Merry Christmas.
My NFL power rankings,
with record and last week's ranking in parentheses:
I hate when I'm
not as excited about something as I should be.
When Mike
Wallace caught a 19-yard touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger Sunday
to tie the Packers 36-36, I raised my arms and cheered. But I didn't
leave my feet.
I was very tame, at least compared to the
way I reacted to some of those "Oh-My-God-I-Can't-Believe-The-Steelers-Did-It-Again"
moments of last season.
Maybe it was because I didn't really believe Wallace got his feet inbounds. Even the official raised his arms slowly as if he was trying
to make up a signal that looked like both "touchdown" and "incomplete
pass." Sort of like a letter that looks like both "T" and "F"
on a True-and-False test.
Perhaps another reason I didn't
shriek like a 12-year-old girl is because I was in a little corner
of the restaurant at Bob Hyland's Sports Page watching the only TV
that didn't have a three-second delay. I saw the touchdown before
anyone else, so my cheering wasn't in sync with the crowd.
I think the real reason I didn't go airborne when Wallace made the
catch as time expired is because the excitement of that moment wasn't enough to outweigh how pissed I was at the Steelers for letting the game, and their season, get to that point.
Faith no more
The Steelers led 24-14 in the third quarter, but then the
offense settled for field goals instead of touchdowns and the defense
broke down in the fourth quarter, a story line as predictable as a
"Honeymooners" episode – until a shocking plot twist
sprang from the mind of Mike Tomlin.
With 3:58 remaining, the Steelers took a 30-28 lead on a 43-yard Jeff
Reed field goal. Then came an onside kick. Ike Taylor recovered it,
but he was penalized because he touched the ball before it went 10
yards.
First of all, what the hell is Taylor doing on the
"hands" team? Second, the only time he ever successfully
grasps the ball, it turns out to be illegal. That's the kind of season
it's been for the Steelers.
Tomlin showed no faith in the ability of his defense to keep the Packers
out of field goal range, so he took a gamble and it backfired. Or
did it?
The coach's slight didn't seem to light any kind
of fire under the haunches of the Steelers defenders. The Packers
got the ball on the Steelers 39. All they needed was a field goal,
but they got a touchdown when Aaron Rodgers threw a 24-yard TD pass
to James Jones. The two-point conversion gave the Packers a 36-30
lead with 2:12 left.
Tomlin has not had a great season as an administrator. He admitted
he didn't have the team prepared for the Chiefs game. He didn't properly
manage locker room communication during the Roethlisberger concussion
fiasco and he didn't carry out threats to yank players from starting
jobs.
On Sunday, however, there was a method to Tomlin's
madness as a tactician.
Like a chess player seeing 10 moves ahead, Tomlin probably figured
that as long as the defense isn't going to stop the Packers, why not
try an onside kick and either get the ball back or help the Packers
score quicker, which would leave enough time on the clock for
the Steelers to mount a game-winning drive.
The Steelers
did just that. But it wasn't neat and organized like the game-winning
drives of yore (by yore I mean 2008).
Rusty Wallace
This was like watching a groom scratch his nuts on his way down the aisle.
On this march to glory, Roethlisberger
was sacked for the fifth time in the game (he's been sacked 43 times
this season, four short of his career high of 47 in 2007).
Max Starks, who as the left tackle is supposed to be the best offensive lineman, was penalized twice during the drive, once for holding and once for a false start.
Roethlisberger was intercepted with 59 seconds left, but the pick was nullified by a penalty.
The Steelers spent
their last timeout after getting to the Packers 19 with 18 seconds
left. Then No. 17, Wallace, let a Roethlisberger pass go through his
hands.
Perhaps the hero-to-be knew what he was doing. He
was short of the goal line. Had he caught the ball, the Steelers would
have needed to spike the ball to stop the clock and had just one more
play.
The
Steelers had two more plays. On the second one, with zeroes on the
clock, Roethlisberger found Wallace at the edge of the end zone. He
caught the ball and kept his feet inbounds, sort of like a community-theatre
version of Santonio Holmes in the Super Bowl.
It was Wallace's
second catch. The first had almost as much of an impact. Just 42 seconds
into the game, on the Steelers' first play from scrimmage, Roethlisberger
hit him for a 60-yard touchdown to make it 7-0.
The suits on NBC and ESPN are just starting with the Mike Wallace-60 Minutes lines that I've been using for weeks. So I'll
stay a step ahead of them and make an astute observation about him.
Wallace started the season on a rookie-of-the-year trajectory. He caught 25 passes in the first eight games, but just nine in the last six. The last game in which he made this much of a splash was the
Steelers' Monday-night win in Denver, when he caught four passes for 69
yards and a touchdown. Then Wallace wasn't a factor for five games,
and the Steelers lost all of them. Hmmm.
Making history
Wallace caught 79 of the 503 yards Roethlisberger rang up on Sunday. It was a franchise record for passing yards and the most prolific
passing day in the NFL since Drew Brees threw for 510 in a loss to
the Bengals on Nov. 19, 2006.
A week earlier, Brees and
the Saints lost to the Steelers in a 38-31 shootout at Heinz Field.
That game shared the distinction as the highest scoring in
the history of Heinz Field – until Sunday.
Reed's extra point not only created the first
37-36 final score in NFL history, it saved the franchise from the indignity of being the first defending champion to lose six straight.
Still, the Steelers' chances
of making the playoffs are like a patient on life support, and this
win is like the eye twitch family members swear that they see.
I won't get into the minute details of the Steelers' situation.
This column is already too long (if you got this far, then you probably
like this site enough to become a fan on Facebook).
All I'll say is the Steelers could win their last two
games and still not make the playoffs.
However, if they
win Sunday at home against the Ravens, their playoff chances will
remain alive going into the final week of the regular season.
Didn't Troy Polamalu say something about trying to come back for
the Miami game?
If the Steelers beat the Ravens, and Polamalu plays at Miami, maybe
then I'll get excited.
Well, what
do you know? The Steelers got a little help from the Colts Thursday night. With the Jaguars' loss to the Colts, the Steelers
went from having almost no chance of making the playoffs to ... well ... having almost no chance of making the playoffs.
I probably have to go back to 2003, the last time the Steelers lost five straight, to remember a time when it
seemed so unlikely the Steelers would win. But if the Steelers can somehow beat or tie the Packers Sunday, the way I
see it, they will remain in the playoff hunt for another week.
If the Steelers lose, they'll be eliminated
if the Broncos win at home over the Raiders and the Ravens win at home over the Bears.
Other games
that matter to the Steelers are Falcons at Jets (Go Falcons), Texans at Rams (Go Rams), Dolphins at Titans
(Go Titans, I guess. Titans are 6-7 and Steelers got them in the tiebreaker) and Patriots at Bills (Go Bills. There's
an outside chance the Steelers could finish with a better record than the Patriots. That would help if the Dolphins overtake
the Patriots in the AFC East.)
Here's the AFC playoff picture with remaining games. This will probably help you
more than my babbling:
Division leaders 1. Indianapolis
14-0 (Jets, at Bills) 2. San Diego 10-3 (Cincinnati, at Tennessee, Washington) 3. Cincinnati 9-4
(at San Diego, Kansas City, at Jets) 4. New England 8-5 (at Buffalo, Jacksonville, at Houston)
Wild-card leaders 5. Denver 8-5 (Oakland, at Philadelphia, Kansas City) 6. Baltimore 7-6 (Chicago, at Pittsburgh, at Oakland)
In the hunt 7. Miami 7-6 (at
Tennessee, Houston, Pittsburgh) 8. Jets 7-6 (Atlanta, at Indianapolis, Cincinnati) 9. Jacksonville 7-7 (at
New England, at Cleveland) 10. Pittsburgh 6-7 (Green Bay, Baltimore, at Miami) 11. Tennessee 6-7 (Miami, San
Diego, at Seattle) 12. Houston 6-7 (at St. Louis, at Miami, New England)
Oh, Oliver
Even though we all know damn well that the
Steelers aren't making the playoffs, at least on Sunday there's a reason to watch them: Pam Oliver.
She can roam
my sidelines any time.
That's all I got.
At a
glance:
Who: Packers (9-4) at Steelers
(6-7) When: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh TV:
Fox (WPGH, Ch. 53 in Pittsburgh. Out-of-market fans, you'll get the game on Fox unless you live in the following areas: Maryland;
south central Pennsylvania; central Florida; Illinois; Indiana; parts of Iowa, Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska; San Diego;
extreme northern California; south, east and north Oregon; all of Washington, northern Idaho and northwestern Montana. Got
all that? If not, go to the506.com) Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Pam Oliver (sideline) All-time:
Packers lead 21-13 The skinny: The Steelers have lost five in a row, and the Packers have won five in
a row. ... Steelers S Troy Polamalu (knee) is out and G Chris Kemoeatu (wrist) is likely out. ... C Justin Hartwig (knee),
WR Limas Sweed (illness) and DE Brett Keisel (neck) are questionable. ... WR Hines Ward (hamstring) is probable. ... The
Packers haven't won in Pittsburgh since Dec. 6, 1970. This is the Packers' first regular-season visit to Heinz Field.
I sort of feel like a guy who used to be a millionaire clipping coupons.
In years past, the Steelers usually were
close to locking up the AFC North title by now, and the only questions
were whether or not they'd get a first-round bye. It was relatively
simple.
This year, however, with the Steelers' playoff
hopes on life support, we need to go through various calculations,
permutations and prestidigitations to figure out how the Steelers
can get into the playoffs, or at least survive another week.
Here's how I figure it.
If the Steelers beat or tie the Packers Sunday at Heinz Field, they will remain in the playoff hunt for another week.
A
Steelers loss, combined with the following, with eliminate them from
the playoffs:
Broncos win or tie at home against the Raiders
AND
Jaguars
win at home against the Colts (Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell says
he's playing his starters) OR Ravens win at home against the Bears.
Also, if the Steelers and Broncos both lose, and the Jaguars
and Ravens both win, the Steelers would be eliminated.
If I'm wrong about any of this, I'll post a correction. But even if I am wrong, at least give me credit. As far as I know, I'm the first pundit with the
balls to try to figure out the Steelers' playoff picture.
And now, my NFL power rankings, with record and last week's ranking in parentheses.
On the first day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: A Loss to the Crappy Browns
On
the second day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the third day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Three Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the fourth day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Four Months
of Mock Drafts, Three Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the
fifth day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Five Late-Game Chokes, Four Months of Mock Drafts, Three
Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the sixth day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Six Rings and That's It, Five Late-Game Chokes, Four Months of Mock Drafts, Three
Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the seventh day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Seven Return Touchdowns, Six Rings and That's It, Five Late-Game Chokes, Four
Months of Mock Drafts, Three Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the eighth day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us, Eight Sacks in Cleveland, Seven Return Touchdowns, Six Rings and That's It, Five Late-Game Chokes, Four Months of Mock Drafts, Three Pointless Games, Two
Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the ninth day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Nine Rashard Dance Moves, Eight Sacks in Cleveland, Seven Return Touchdowns, Six Rings and That's It, Five Late-Game Chokes, Four Months of Mock Drafts, Three Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a
Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the tenth day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Ten Losses Maybe, Nine Rashard Dance Moves, Eight Sacks in Cleveland, Seven Return Touchdowns, Six Rings and That's It, Five Late-Game Chokes, Four Months of Mock Drafts, Three Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a
Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the eleventh day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us: Eleven Duds on Defense, Ten Losses Maybe, Nine Rashard Dance Moves, Eight Sacks in Cleveland, Seven Return Touchdowns, Six Rings
and That's It, Five Late-Game Chokes, Four Months of Mock Drafts, Three Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
On the twelfth day of Christmas, the Steelers gave to us, Twelve Fans
at Heinz Field, Eleven Duds on Defense, Ten Losses Maybe, Nine Rashard Dance Moves, Eight Sacks in Cleveland, Seven Return Touchdowns, Six Rings and That's It, Five Late-Game Chokes, Four Months of Mock Drafts, Three
Pointless Games, Two Feuding Players and a Loss to the Crappy Browns
That's me on the left with Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl on the right.
Misery in good company
Browns 13, Steelers 6
By Mike Batista
The Steelers have sunk to a low not seen since Ben Roethlisberger
was at Miami of Ohio and Troy Polamalu came off the bench.
They
lost to the Browns, and they've lost five in a row. Neither has happened
since 2003. And while they're not mathematically out of the playoffs,
my math isn't good enough to figure out how they can make the playoffs.
Were it not for the emotional lift provided by my photo opportunity
with Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl, I might have slashed my wrists with a broken beer bottle, and this Web site that has touched so many lives (just humor me and tell me it has) would have
died with me.
And I thought a picture of me holding a bottle
of Iron City would be my photo of the night.
IC is one of the many Pittsburgh amenities at Hibernia, a bar in Manhattan that's full of Steelers memorabilia and even plays the "Steelers Polka."
It was at Hibernia on Thursday
night that Pittsburgh's top elected official was just another Steelers
fan suffering through this disgraceful defeat. Ravenstahl just happened
to be in the New York outpost of Steelers Nation because he and many
of his fellow Pennsylvania politicians are attending The Pennsylvania
Society's annual Holiday Dinner Saturday at the Waldorf-Astoria.
That's assuming this loss doesn't trigger a state of emergency
in Pittsburgh and force Ravenstahl to rush back.
Empty words
Before I get into what happened on the field, let me first express
my annoyance with what was said in the broadcast booth.
I can understand NFL Network play-by-play man Bob Papa referring to the Steelers as "defending Super Bowl champions" once or twice early in the game, because technically they are. But Papa used the term "defending Super Bowl
champions" so many times he sounded like Rain Man.
The
Steelers haven't played like champions since they were in Denver.
Calling them "defending Super Bowl champions" is sort of like calling Tiger Woods a husband.
Now let's get down to field level and talk about the coaching.
Despite Mike Tomlin's threats to demote some starters, the Steelers' starting lineup was unchanged. The names scrolling
across the TV screen at the beginning of the game were all too familiar.
Ike Taylor. William Gay. Ryan Clark. Lawrence Timmons.
Rookie
cornerback Joe Burnett saw some action. But Keenan Lewis, another
rookie cornerback, didn't even dress for the game.
The Steelers are going to need to take a long, hard look at Burnett and Lewis before the end of the season in order to assess their need for a cornerback
in the draft.
It's December and I'm talking about the draft.
Nice, huh?
Tomlin didn't have the stones to shuffle the
lineup like he said he would. That's poor leadership, and the Steelers
were a reflection of their coach on Thursday.
Stuffed
by sacks
This is a team that has been tormented
by ham and eggers during this five-game skid. Hank Poteat and Chris
Jennings took their place in that pantheon with the likes of Andy
Studebaker and Bruce Gradkowski.
Poteat, a former Steelers cornerback, had the third sack of his 11-year career. Poteat taking down Roethlisberger is like a Mini
Cooper cutting off a Hummer in traffic. It looks funny.
Poteat's
sack was just one of eight by the Browns' defense. The Steelers couldn't
sustain any drives with Roethlisberger being sacked on seven of their
10 possessions. I don't care how long Roethlisberger holds the ball,
something is wrong with the offensive line when the quarterback is
sacked eight times.
It probably doesn't help that the Steelers
haven't been much of a threat to run the ball. I'm tired of Rashard
Mendenhall doing more spinning than a DJ.
Mendenhall had
just 53 yards on 16 carries. He also had a costly dropped pass on
third down with the Steelers trailing 13-6 in the fourth quarter.
With less than 12 minutes left, Mendenhall was at the Browns' 40.
He needed to get to the 26 for the first down, but there was no one
near him. He might have had a shot had he held onto the ball.
Why
can't Mendenhall be more like Jennings?
A rookie running
back who started the year on the Browns' practice squad, Jennings
came out of nowhere and fueled the game's only touchdown drive, shredding
the Steelers' defense for 28 yards on four carries late in the second
quarter, culminating in his 10-yard touchdown run that gave the Browns
a 13-0 lead.
And what would a Steelers-Browns game be without
Joshua Cribbs making the Steelers look like a bunch of hung over Sunday
morning rec league players?
Cribbs is always good for a big return on special teams against the
Steelers, and these big returns always seem to come after he muffs
the ball. It happened again in the first quarter Thursday. He dropped
a Dan Sepulveda punt, but picked it up and ran 55 yards to the Steelers'
8, setting up a field goal and a 3-0 Browns lead.
Cribbs
took the Steelers' defense apart out of the wildcat, gaining 87 yards
on eight carries. His longest run of 37 yards got the ball to the
Steelers' 30 during that touchdown drive.
The Browns ran
for 171 yards, their biggest output against the Steelers since 1972.
The Browns also are the first team to lead the Steelers by more than
seven points this season and the first team to beat them by more than
six.
That's right. The lowly Browns (2-11) beat the Steelers
(6-7) more soundly than any team this season except maybe the Bengals.
Crunching the numbers
After falling behind 13-0, the Steelers got a field goal at the end of the
first half then another one late in the third quarter to pull within seven.
The Steelers got the ball at their 21 with 6:16 to go in the
game. Those game-tying or game-winning drives in the fourth quarter had a way of coming together last season.
It looked like maybe the Steelers had something going with a first-and-10
at the Browns 43 with 2:40 left, but Roethlisberger was sacked for
a nine-yard loss, the drive petered out, and this title defense officially
became more feeble than the one in 2006.
The 2006 Steelers
never lost five straight. They never even lost four straight.
And
they didn't lose to the Browns.
The 2009 Steelers became
the first, um, defending Super Bowl champion to lose to a team at least 10 games under .500 since the 1997 Packers, who lost
to the 0-10 Colts.
That Packers team, however, got
back to the Super Bowl that season. The loss to the Colts was merely a fluke.
For the Steelers, the unfortunate reality is that losing to a one-win team is no fluke.
The Steelers' situation has inspired me to invoke my favorite movie scene of all-time, a drunk Crash Davis talking about the difference between hitting .250
and .300 in "Bull Durham":
"Twenty-five hits a year in 500 at-bats is 50 points.
Okay? There's six months in a season, that's about 25 weeks -- you get one extra flare a week -- just one -- a gork,
a ground ball with eyes!, a dying quail -- just one more
dying quail a week and you're in Yankee
Stadium."
Instead
of the difference between .250 and .300, I'm talking about the difference between 6-6 and 9-3. The season's gone about three
months. If the Steelers had been able to hang onto three balls, just three more caught balls a month, they're fighting for a first-round playoff bye.
If Santonio Holmes catches that touchdown pass in Chicago, if Limas Sweed catches that touchdown pass in Cincinnati,
if Joe Burnett catches that interception Sunday in Pittsburgh, nobody would be asking what's wrong with the Steelers.
Of course, those dropped
balls wouldn't loom so large if Jeff Reed hadn't missed two field goals in the fourth quarter in Chicago, if the Steelers
hadn't let the Bengals off the hook on fourth-and-10, if someone in a black jersey had been able to knock down that, well that dying quail that landed in the hands of Louis Murphy on Sunday.
As Bill Parcells once said, you are what you are. And right
now, the Steelers are a .500 football team that needs to win the rest of its games and get some help to make the playoffs.
The Steelers can't think about winning four football games right now. They have to think about winning one and getting
back to basics. For the Steelers, the basics is beating the Cleveland Browns.
The Steelers have defeated the Browns 12 straight times and have won eight straight in Cleveland. Ben Roethlisberger is 10-0 in his
career against the Browns.
If the Steelers can salvage
one thing from this season, it's their dominance of the Browns. Right now, that's all they got.
At a glance:
Who:
Steelers (6-6) at Browns (1-11) When: Thursday, 8 p.m. Where: Cleveland Browns
Stadium, Cleveland TV: NFL Network (KDKA Ch. 2 in Pittsburgh, DirecTV Channel 212) Announcers:
Bob Papa, Matt Millen All-time: Steelers lead 60-55 (Steelers lead 2-0 in the postseason) The
skinny: S Troy Polamalu (knee) is out for the Steelers. According to an Associated Press story, he's not sure if
he'll be back this season, although the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Pittsburgh Tribune-Review have not run similar stories.
... WR Hines Ward (hamstring) and CB William Gay (knee) are questionable.
... QB Charlie Batch (wrist) and RB Rashard Mendenhall (ankle) are probable. Batch would be the No. 3 quarterback. ... The
Steelers are trying to avoid their first five-game losing streak since 2003.
Those of you living in the 'Burgh might be planning to watch the University
of Pittsburgh men's basketball team play Indiana tonight at 9 p.m.,
in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden.
While the Steelers' circumstance isn't nearly as
dire as that of Valvano's that day (he was battling cancer and died
less than two months after this speech), it probably wouldn't be a
bad idea for Mike Tomlin to put the "Gladiator" quotes on hold and show this the night before Thursday's game in
Cleveland. The Steelers could use the inspiration.
The Steelers have lost four in a row and are in danger of not making the playoffs. But let's try to be as optimistic in the face of adversity as Valvano was that night.
If the Steelers
can upset the Browns (yeah, I said "upset"), then they'll still be alive in the playoff hunt and they're likely to have Troy Polamalu back for the final three games.
No matter how good he is, a championship team shouldn't be so affected by the loss of one player, but the fact is that without Polamalu, the Steelers defense is a bunch of ham and eggers.
The Steelers are 4-1 when Polamalu starts, including 3-0 when he plays the whole game. They're 2-5 when he doesn't play, and one
of those wins was over the Lions. Polamalu has three interceptions
in the three-plus games he's played. The Steelers have eight as a
team.
As I said, the Steelers can beat anybody with Polamalu.
That knee has 12 more days to heal.
But if they can't beat
the Browns Thursday, even without Polamalu, then give up.
Here are my NFL power rankings, with record and last week's ranking in paretheses:
After the two-minute warning,
they should have run the ball a couple more times to milk the clock,
then scored the touchdown.
Instead, Ben Roethlisberger
threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Hines Ward to give the Steelers
a 24-20 lead with 1:56 left.
Don't the Steelers know that
1:56 is an eternity for a quarterback like Bruce Gradkowski? We're
talking about Air Gradkowski!
Protecting a four-point lead
was futile for the Steelers' defense against a quarterback with such
a long, distinguished career (actually, the Raiders are Gradkowski's
fourth team in four years).
The Pittsburgh-born Gradkowski
always rises to the occasion at Heinz Field (in his two previous games
at Heinz, he threw five interceptions with no touchdowns. With the
Browns last season, his passer rating in Pittsburgh was 1.0).
Gradkowski is the next great quarterback from Western Pennsylvania. Right up there with Unitas, Montana, Marino and Namath.
OK, maybe not. But the Steelers sure made
it look that way.
Gradkowski went 88 yards in 99 seconds,
throwing an 11-yard touchdown pass to Louis Murphy with nine seconds
left to give the Raiders a 27-24 lead.
The Steelers got close enough for Roethlisberger to heave a Hail Mary
as the clock ran out. Limas Sweed was the only Steelers receiver with
a chance to catch the ball before it was batted down.
When
Limas Sweed is your only hope, you're fucked.
Not catching on
As if losing to the Raiders (4-8) wasn't bad enough, the Steelers (6-6) lost to a West Coast team playing at 1 p.m. on the East Coast.
Even good West Coast teams have struggled in that situation in recent years.
This is without a doubt the Steelers'
most infamous home defeat since their loss to the Houston Texas in
2002.
While this loss is certainly stunning, I don't think
the shock factor is quite as high as it was in that loss to the Texans.
The 2002 Steelers were clearly a playoff-caliber team, and they dominated
the Texans that day but lost because of three return touchdowns.
This Steelers team, which has lost four straight, doesn't
look like it can dominate anybody. Not even the Cleveland Browns,
who they visit Thursday.
Things might be different if Troy Polamalu were playing. The Steelers
can beat anybody with Polamalu, but without him, they can lose to
anybody, including the Browns.
Without Polamalu, the Steelers
secondary is awful. On the Raiders' winning drive, rookie cornerback
Joe Burnett showed he's learned what it means to be a true Steeler
by dropping an interception. It was right in his bread basket. Carol
Burnett could have caught that ball.
You just can't give a quarterback like Bruce Gradkowski a second chance
like that. I mean, he's so great that when people think Bruce, they
think Gradkowski (or is it Springsteen?).
The Steelers
secondary couldn't catch or cover in crunch time. On second-and-10
from the Steelers' 40, Gradkowski threw a ball that wobbled worse
than the town drunk. But somehow Murphy came down with it at the Steelers
17 with 27 seconds left.
I wish I could say that my funny
feeling the Steelers could lose this game started only at that point.
But it actually started a little more than a minute into the game.
Kicking themselves
After losing three straight, it looked like the Steelers were finally out of their doldrums when Stefan Logan returned the opening kickoff
83 yards to the Raiders' 19. He didn't get that touchdown we've all
been waiting for, but hey, he got the Steelers into the red zone.
And all they got out of it was three points.
The ensuing kickoff went to old friend Gary Russell, who returned kicks last year for the Steelers. What I liked about Russell was that even though he was never going to break free on a kick return,
he always got it past the 20.
Russell got this one to the
42. I think if anyone except Russell was returning this kick against
the Steelers' suspect kick coverage, it would have been a touchdown.
Later in the first quarter, with the score tied 3-3, Rashard
Mendenhall ran 60 yards to the Raiders' 14 (take that one away, and he ran 19 times for 43 yards). But the Steelers got no points out of it because Roethlisberger got stuffed on fourth-and-1 at the 5.
Hey, at least the offensive line allowed
just one sack. Problem was, it was a sack that yanked the Steelers
out of field goal range with them clinging to a 10-6 lead at the end
of the third quarter.
But Steelers coach Mike Tomlin decided
to go for the 53-yard field goal anyway. Jeff Reed missed, giving
the Raiders the ball on their 43.
Back and forth
Gradkowski, the King of the Fourth Quarter Comeback
(you can count them on one hand), then engineered an 11-play drive,
culminating in a 17-yard touchdown pass to Chaz Schilens (another household name) to give the Raiders a 13-10 lead.
The Steelers countered quickly with a 37-yard return by Logan, a 57-yard completion from Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes and a three-yard
TD run by Mendenhall, making it 17-13 with 7:13 to play.
The Raiders took the lead back when Gradkowski burned Ike Taylor (the Steelers' safeties were apparently lined up in Coraopolis) for a 75-yard TD pass to Murphy, making it 20-17 with 5:28 left.
Then it was the Steelers' turn. Roethlisberger
took them 80 yards on seven plays, finishing with the 11-yard touchdown
pass to Ward with 1:56 left.
Roethlisberger completed 18 of 24 passes for 278 yards. Almost half
of those yards (134) came in the fourth quarter, when he completed
6 of 7 passes (the Hail Mary was his only incompletion).
Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense were in championship form in the fourth quarter. The problem, as it has been the entire season, was the defense.
The bad news is the Steelers have to win their remaining four games
and get some help to make the playoffs.
The good news is
they won't have to face Gradkowski again.
Having lost three straight games, the Steelers need a win any way they can get
it.
They should live by the mantra from the glory days
of Sunday's opponent.
Just win baby.
The Raiders haven't been doing much of that lately. So a more likely utterance
from owner Al Davis, who turned 80 on July 4, would be "Oops, I crapped my pants."
What used to be a Commitment to Excellence is now a Commitment
to Excrement.
Too close for comfort
OK, now that I have my scatological satire out of the way, let's take a look at why the Steelers are in their current
predicament.
It comes down to winning close games. The
Steelers are 1-5 this season in games decided by seven points or less. None of their losses this season have been by more
than six points. Last season they were 6-2, not counting the Super Bowl, in games decided by seven points or less.
You could say that the Steelers would be 9-2 instead of 6-5 if Santonio
Holmes can hold onto touchdown passes in two losses and if Limas Sweed can hold onto a touchdown pass in another loss.
But you also could say that the Steelers would be 9-7 instead
of 12-4 last season if a single play went the other way in any three of their narrow wins.
Parity is one of the reasons the NFL is the most successful pro sports league in the history of civilization. The
talent discrepancy between the best and worst NFL teams is less than that of the best and worst teams in Major League Baseball,
the NBA and the NHL. It helps make the league less predictable than other leagues.
But parity can be a fickle thing. It treated the Steelers very well last year. This year, not so much.
But the year isn't over yet.
Born in the 'Burgh
Pittsburgh-born Bruce Gradkowski will start at quarterback for the Raiders, making his third start with three different
teams at Heinz Field.
Gradkowski has completed 25 of 50
passes with no touchdowns and five interceptions in his two previous starts at Heinz with the Buccaneers and Browns, both
Steelers wins.
This season, Gradkowski has started two
games (Raiders are 1-1 in those games) and is 52 for 99 for 546 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
At a glance:
Who: Raiders (3-8) at Steelers (6-5) When:
Sunday, 1 p.m. Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh TV: CBS (KDKA, Ch. 2 in Pittsburgh.
DirecTV 707. Click here for the national broadcast map) Announcers: Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf All-time: Raiders lead 9-8 (teams tied
3-3 in postseason) The skinny: Steelers are trying to avoid their first four-game losing streak since
2003. ... Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start for the Steelers after missing last week's game because of post-concussion
symptoms. ... Steelers G Chris Kemoeatu is expected to return after missing the Ravens game with a knee injury ... DE Travis
Kirschke (calf) is doubtful. ... The Steelers signed cornerback Anthony Madison, who they cut before the season, to shore
up their special teams.
With all the attention
focused on concussions these days, Hines Ward sounded like a grumpy old man who starts every sentence with the words "In
my day ... " when he made his comments regarding Ben Roethlisberger.
He has since apologized on his Facebook
page for those comments, so there's not much left to say on that, except for the fact that I'm now a fan of Hines Ward on Facebook.
Hey, this is a perfect opportunity to plug my Facebook
fan page. Look over there on the right. Click on the button and become a fan. It's that simple!
By becoming a fan
of Steelahs.com on Facebook, you get alerts the minute I post something new on Steelahs.com, and you get bonus musings from the brain of me, Mike Batista.
Who wouldn't want that?
Now, my NFL power rankings, with records
and last week's ranking in parentheses.