Brownout
By Mike Batista
Steelahs.com host
September
2, 2007
Now that the meaningless preseason games are over, I can get down to the business of offering my official
Steelahs.com prediction for 2007.
In support of the Steelers players, I didn’t dare look at the regular season
before the end of their final preseason game. Mike Tomlin didn’t allow them to do any preparation for the season opener
against Cleveland until after the preseason finale against Carolina. He wanted the team to focus solely on the next game,
even if it was a game that didn’t count. Ben Roethlisberger had to go behind Tomlin’s back to watch a tape of
the Browns.
Good for Roethlisberger. He has the sense to get a head start on studying for the regular-season opener.
It eases any doubt about his head being screwed on right after a tumultuous 2006. Bad for Tomlin. Losing to the rebuilding
Browns is the worst way he could start his tenure as Steelers coach. It could turn much of the sentiment of Steelers Nation
against him. And one of the basic tenets of Steelahs.com says that a game on the road against a divisional opponent is never
a guaranteed win.
About the only thing that’s guaranteed this season is the Chargers, Patriots and Colts making
the playoffs. That essentially leaves three playoff spots open in the AFC. The Ravens will win the AFC North and get in. The
Steelers went 6-2 in the second half of the season last year, with both losses coming in convincing fashion to the Ravens.
The Ravens will still be better than the Steelers this year, but the gap will narrow.
The Broncos will get the first
wild-card spot as the No. 5 seed. The tragedy the team suffered during the offseason will be a motivator, and they’ve
improved their running game with Travis Henry and their secondary with Dre’ Bly. That leaves one playoff spot up for
grabs. The Jaguars, Jets, Bengals, Titans – and Steelers – will be in the running for it.
The Jets made
the playoffs last year with a 10-6 record and added Thomas Jones to legitimize their ground game. There’s a lot of optimism
in Tennessee. The Titans have a rising star in Vince Young and they finished last season by winning six of their last seven.
But because of tough schedules, neither team will make the playoffs.
The Bengals? No defense. No playoffs.
The
Jaguars could have the best defense in the NFL. But they have problems on offense. The biggest game on the Steelers’
schedule this year might just be their game against the Jaguars at home on Dec. 16. Look for the Steelers to win that game.
That win will come in handy, because the Steelers and Jaguars will both finish 10-6, and the Steelers will make the playoffs
by virtue of their head-to-head tiebreaker over Jacksonville.
This all hinges on the Steelers beating Jacksonville,
which they should have done each of the last two years. It’s funny, the Steelers lost to the Jaguars two years ago because
they didn’t have Ben Roethlisberger and they lost to them last year because Roethlisberger shouldn’t have been
playing. In 2005, Tommy Maddox bungled his way through a 23-17 overtime loss with Roethlisberger injured. Rashean Mathis returned
an interception for a touchdown to give the Jags (who where the worst 12-4 team of all-time that year) the win in OT. Then
last year, Roethlisberger came back two weeks after an appendectomy and the Steelers lost 9-0. Roethlisberger returned too
early. Charlie Batch might have been able to scrape together 10 points to steal a win that night. It’s probably the
Steelers’ most overlooked loss last year. Much is made of their losses to the Raiders and Bengals. But the Jacksonville
loss is another one that could have been avoided.
So the Steelers will get into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, just
like they did two years ago, and like they could have done last year if their Super Bowl hangover had worn off earlier.
The
first thing the Steelers need to get back to the playoffs will be Roethlisberger’s return to his old self. He’ll
do well in a more open offense. He’s not content as a system quarterback. He wants to throw the ball, and he’ll
have the opportunity to do that under new coordinator Bruce Arians. He’ll get help from Santonio Holmes, who I believe
is going to have a breakout year. The Steelers will put some points on the board this season.
That said, the Steelers
can’t turn into the pass-happy unit that floundered in 2003. They’ll need feast-or-famine running back Willie
Parker to have the kind of year he had last year. That means we’ll have to sit through 15 of his carries adding up to
20 yards before he lets loose for a 60- and an 80-yard run.
My biggest concern on offense is the line. It looks like
there are going to be a couple of new faces. There might be a few kinks to work out before the unit jells.
On defense,
the Steelers should again be among the best in the NFL with the combination of their solid front seven doing its job, Troy
Polamalu flying around and Dick LeBeau running the show. The problem area, if there is one, will be in the secondary. I don’t
think I’ve felt comfortable with the Steelers’ defensive backs since Rod Woodson left. It’s frustrating
that Bryant McFadden can’t win a starting job. Deshea Townsend isn’t getting any younger, but there’s no
one good enough to beat him out. At least that’s what it looked like about a week before the season. On the other side,
we’ll see if Ike Taylor can earn his money.
Since Bill Cowher’s not coaching anymore, we’re not going
to forget about special teams. Tomlin put a lot of work into it early in training camp, and just before press time for this
story, the Steelers acquired return specialist Allen Rossum from Atlanta. I wish I could get excited about that move, but
Rossum is 31 and a little past his prime. The Steelers’ biggest special teams weapon is rookie punter Daniel Sepulveda,
who with his big leg can give the Steelers the edge in field-position battles.
So does this all add up to a repeat of
the magic carpet ride of 2005, when the Steelers became the first No. 6 seed to win the Super Bowl? I’m going to prolong
the suspense a little longer by revealing what I think will happen in the NFC.
The 49ers are my pick as the NFL’s
out-of-nowhere team this season. They’re on the way up, and they’ll make a bigger leap than anyone expects this
year by winning the NFC West and taking the top seed in the NFC playoffs. If you haven’t heard of Frank Gore, you will
by the end of the season.
The Cowboys will grab the No. 2 seed, winning the NFC East. The Saints will win the NFC South
and take the No. 3seed. The Bears will win the NFC North and earn the No. 4 seed. The wild cards will be the aging but wily
Seahawks with the No. 5 seed and the Panthers with the No. 6 seed.
Saints beat Panthers and Seahawks beat Bears on wild-card
weekend. In the divisional round, the Seahawks will take advantage of the 49ers’ lack of playoff experience and win
that one while the Cowboys beat the Saints. The Cowboys will then atone for the botched snap against Seattle in last year’s
playoffs and beat the Seahawks in Dallas to reach the Super Bowl for the 10th time in franchise history.
Now for the
AFC, where the Chargers will be the top seed, followed by the Patriots, Colts and Ravens. As I said before, the Broncos will
be the No. 5 seed and the Steelers will take the No. 6 seed.
Unfortunately, lightning will not strike twice. The Colts
will beat the Steelers in a shootout at Indianapolis in the wild card, with Peyton Manning outslinging Roethlisberger. At
least it will be an exciting end to the Steelers’ season.
The Ravens will beat the Broncos in the other wild-card
game. In the divisional round, the Colts won’t roll over in the cold New England weather like they’ve done in
years past, but they’ll fall just a hair short against the Patriots. In the other game, the Chargers will defeat the
Ravens.
That will set up a rematch of last year’s playoff game between the Patriots and Chargers. The Chargers
will learn their lesson, play smarter and go to the Super Bowl.
In the Battle of the Retread Coaches, Norv Turner will
lead the Chargers over Wade Phillips and the Cowboys and hoist the Lombardi Trophy. It will be the first and last time that
Norv Turner and Vince Lombardi are mentioned in the same sentence.
I know this prediction isn’t exactly what Steelers
fans want to hear. But I’ve been wrong before, and I hope I’m wrong this time – about the Steelers, anyway.
Now
let’s get out those Browns tapes.
